Time: 2025-09-22
Today's promo packs are far less impressive than yesterday's, with EA showing some restraint. However, the market still hasn't recovered from the panic caused by yesterday's packs. While the highest-end cards have remained relatively stable or even slowly increased, mid to low-tier gold cards continue to decline.
The new Flashback Džeko SBC had little impact on the market. Directly linked David de Gea saw a significant rise of over 50%, while Keane remained unchanged. Goalkeepers are expensive this year and will be a key focus for future linking investments. Hard-to-link cards, especially the more expensive ones, tend to rise better, while cheaper ones struggle to gain value. A review of Džeko will be provided later.
A paid Evolution was also released yesterday, but it’s underwhelming in strength and overpriced. With a capped speed of 80, it’s… well, pretty useless.
The Evolution was leaked before its release, causing Ekitike’s price to gradually rise, peaking at 33,000 coins. However, it plummeted immediately after the Evolution launched, as clearly shown in the graph below:
Trading Evolutions has been possible since the year before last. Based on experience, the safest strategies are either selling before release to secure profits or chasing after genuinely popular Evolutions post-release. The riskiest move is holding onto cards hoping for a strong Evolution. A memorable example is TOTW Doku during last year's Team of the Year, which nearly quadrupled in value. Ekitike’s case is a classic example of the risks—failing to sell before the release resulted in significant losses.
Another key factor this year is EA’s clear indication that Evolutions will be weaker, intended only as supplements for secondary or tertiary squads rather than overpowering promo cards—at least in the early stages.
Another important milestone is the first Squad Battles (SQB) rewards distribution of this edition. Before daylight saving time ends, rewards will be distributed at 3 PM Beijing Time on Sunday (may take up to 5 minutes to process).
Before the Standard Edition players join, the market will remain relatively flat. Ultimate Edition players have already built their squads, and SQB rewards are scarcer compared to previous years, resulting in fewer coins injected into the market. After today’s wave of supply, cheaper cards may dip further before a slight rebound, while truly high-end and expensive cards will gradually rise until the first Division Rivals (DR) rewards are distributed.
It’s worth noting that Season 1 SQB rewards will no longer include chemistry styles. The Elite 1 rewards are shown below:
If you maxed out on chemistry styles like Shadow, Hunter, and Catalyst on launch day, many have already doubled or even tripled in value. You can continue holding them for further gains, as they may reach their price caps. Many veteran players have adopted this strategy. Promo packs also only contain players, with no chemistry styles included. Currently, chemistry styles are only available in packs costing 150 Green Points, which are permanent and have a steady supply.
Since SQB rewards will be distributed late at night in my time zone, I’m sharing the buying list early. Some prices are estimates, so please bear with me.
The safest method is to check Futbin for the prices of player cards ranging from 2,000 to 10,000 coins before rewards drop. Then, about an hour after rewards are distributed, use bulk bidding to snipe cards at 15% or more below their market value and sell them before 10 PM Beijing Time. This method is ideal for players with limited capital to accumulate coins, as the massive supply makes sniping easy.
For players who don’t frequently engage in market trading but have some capital, now is a good time to invest in fodder cards.
Currently, 86, 87, and 88-rated fodder cards are near their lowest prices. Although it’s still early, any leaks about major SBCs will cause these cards to rise. Prices are similar across PS/XBOX and PC platforms—aim for the lowest possible prices. Generally, 87 and 88-rated cards can be bought a few hundred coins below current prices. The holding time is unpredictable, but the earliest could be within a week or two.
TOTW Week 1 Investments:
As mentioned earlier, TOTW Haaland is a solid choice for both personal use and investment if purchased around this price (though it might be challenging). PC prices are too high, so skip there. Modrić should be bought under 25,000 coins. The following cards should be targeted at around 13,000 coins across all platforms:
Other min-price cards can also be bought and stored in your club.
Expected selling time: Haaland around the first Weekend League; other cards are long-term investments.
Gold Cards Likely to Make TOTW 2:
Gold Militao should be purchased at around 55,000 coins across all platforms.
Risk: Early leaks may reveal he didn’t make TOTW 2.
Expected selling time: Before TOTW 2 is released.
Chemistry Styles:
Hunter: 500 → 2,100
Shadow: 1,000 → 2,900
Catalyst: 500 → 1,000
You can either secure profits now or continue holding, as there’s still room for growth. Since profits are already significant, decide based on your situation. No further reminders will be provided.
Sell all Dutch gold players due to oversupply and lack of price increase.
Coach investments from launch day:
Bosnia Coach: 600 → 850 (Sell)
France Coach: 800 → 3,100
Brazil Coach: 800 → 3,500
Hold these a bit longer, as they may reach their price caps.
Ghana Coach: 200 → 2,800 (Sell after 10x profit)
Some high-end cards like Ferdinand, Blanc, Rijkaard, and Milito are still held—wait for further updates.
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